A shareholder gets wind of the fact that the company is playing fast and loose with numbers and decides to ask some questions. Questions are answered in vague terms.

The numbers seem shaky at best, and the more the shareholder digs, the less sense the numbers make. After getting nowhere with the company, the shareholder decides to hire an expert to verify the data and, if possible, determine what the real numbers might be.

To the shareholder’s shock and amazement, the independent report concludes that the company’s impact statement isn’t based on much of anything. In fact, the CFO is liable under Sarbanes-Oxley.

Horrified, the shareholder provides the independent analysis to the president of the company and all the members of the Board.

When nothing happens, he goes public with the information and is congratulated for his efforts by all of the other shareholders who have a financial stake in the success of the company.

For the purpose of this letter, substitute taxpayer for shareholder, the state for the company, the Governor for the President and the Legislature for the Board.

The Chamber commissioned a study to gauge the impact on taxpayers of paid leave, since it is a tax on every worker in the state. The costs are significantly higher than the estimates used to gain support of the Legislature. At least 90 percent of working New Jerseyans will pay for a benefit they will never use, and there is no valid data to support an annual cost of $33 per worker per year . The payroll deduction has nowhere to go but up.

The Office of Legislative Services predicts a paid leave use rate of 38,200 in the first year, and negligible growth in subsequent years.

Even if you accept the 38,200 as a valid number, you need only look at the California experience to understand that growth in subsequent years will explode – up 10 percent the first year, 8.5 percent cent the second year and up a whopping 40 for the first full month of 2008.

Of course the business community has issues with mandates – particularly those that stress an already stressed workforce. Business owners contacted legislators at an unprecedented rate on this issue, and yes, a few have said when their leases are up, they will move out of state.

Not a deal breaker by itself, paid leave yet is another in the heap of straws threatening the camel’s back.

The Governor is expected to sign paid leave into law at the end of the month. With nearly 10,000 individual emails and phone calls from members to legislators, you and your fellow members rallied on this issue in greater numbers than ever before, and we very narrowly lost.

I encourage you to stay engaged on issues, like paid leave, that impact your business. With your help, we'll win the next one.

The research report, funded by the Enterprise Trust Fund, may be found here.

State Chamber President Joan Verplanck can be reached at joan@njchamber.com.